“Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by more than 30 basis points,” wrote Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a release. (100 basis points is one percentage point.) The bump above 3% is not necessarily a surprise. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 2.97% last week, up from 2.81% the week prior and well off early January’s all-time low of 2.65% as Treasury yields have also climbed. “It’s surprising how fast 10-year Treasury yields are rising,” said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, in an interview with Barron’s last week. Yun, who in mid-February predicted that rates would reach 3% by the middle of the year, said rates will reach 3.1% or 3.2% by the summer and could reach 3.3% by the end of the year as Treasuries climb on hope for economic recovery and the prospect of additional stimulus. Rising mortgage rates have had an impact on buyer demand, Freddie Mac’s Khater wrote in the release. “While purchase activity remains high, it has cooled off over the last few weeks and is currently on par with early March, prior to the pandemic,” he said. “However, the rise in mortgage rates over the next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.” Freddie Mac’s most recent forecast, published in mid-January, predicts that rates will average 2.9% through the end of 2021. Despite the increase, rates remain relatively low from a historical perspective. “Although rates have risen off their recent bottoms, it’s important to keep in mind that they are only about as high as last August,” Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage website HSH, told Barron’s. Some buyers could be priced out as mortgage rates and home prices rise, Gumbinger said. But “there may not be all that much impact on homebuying overall, but more of a tempering effect,” Gumbinger noted. Most home buyers can stomach an increase in rates, wrote UBS analyst Jonathan Woloshin in a Wednesday note. Increasing mortgage rates could help temper home price appreciation, “something that would actually be a positive for longer-term health of the housing market, in our view,” he wrote. While the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates often correspond with each other, “the relationship is not linear as the spread between Treasuries and mortgage rates can be volatile,” Woloshin said. Factors like policy, mortgage market spreads, home purchase and refinance demand, and bond and financial market liquidity also impact mortgage rates, he wrote.